1/15/19 – Jamie Benn and Player Valuation

In any business you have to trust your people to make decisions that will push your business forward. At some point every business needs outside input and fresh blood to keep the decision making process evolving. The idea that Stars management needs some fresh blood is one I floated this past off season. This recent note about Jamie Benn’s Art Ross Trophy being a catalyst and excuse for his large contract extension only strengthens that thought.

Sean Shapiro is cranking out a large amount of high quality interesting pieces on the regular for The Athletic that makes my five bucks a month to The Athletic worth it.I get not wanting to spend money on too many things. Believe me, I do. When I upgraded this place to Business out of pocket to work on making it look a little nicer I winced. I don’t think twice about that five bucks though.

I don’t know how much of it is Sean or the aftermath of Jim Lites embarrassing the franchise lately, but it seems like the stream of stories worth writing about doesn’t end. Sean’s latest Shap Shots column has so many little details in it like this stunning admission from a team source about Jamie Benn:

Last month a team source told me that in hindsight, Benn winning the Art Ross could have been the worst thing to ever happen to this franchise. It was an award that helped Benn demand his massive contract and set unfair expectations for a player about to exit his prime. In hindsight, that was the moment this source said the Stars should have traded Benn for the king’s ransom that he would have been worth at the time.

[…]

As Benn has aged — just a season and a half into the life of his eight-year contract — the Stars haven’t just gotten angry with the player, but with aging itself. They bet big that Benn would either find the fountain of youth or a time machine, and he’s yet to make those particular discoveries.

Posting this to r/dating_advice as a relationship scenario is going to make commenters tell OP to run away. This is Not Good.

Let’s start with the patently absurd idea that Jamie Benn winning the Art Ross Trophy could have been the worst thing to ever happen to this franchise.

Stop it.

Jamie Benn winning the Art Ross was a blessing for a franchise that recently had otherwise had little worth celebrating. Between this and Mike Modano hitting his milestones as his career wound down how much else was there?

Benn winning the Art Ross Trophy did not force the Stars to sign a contract they believed was too expensive. The Stars were within their rights to attempt to trade Benn if they felt he wasn’t worth the money. They signed the contract the same as he did.

If the Stars decided to trade Benn after he won the Art Ross do they make the playoffs in 2016? What would the reaction have been as Benn improved to 89 points from 87 in 2017? What would they have traded him for? Teams trading the good player for futures rarely win the deal (as evidenced by Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza). What good would it have done the franchise to deal Benn?

The Stars would have gotten prospects and/or picks in return. What about their recent track record of drafting and developing players suggests that they would have turned those assets into actual NHL talent? Trading Jamie Benn never would have been a realistic option for a team that desperately needed to hold on to key players.

The biggest red flag here is the Stars not grasping the aging curve of an NHL player. It was never reasonable to assume that Benn was going to score 80+ points a year during this contract. He’s still on a 60 point pace this year so he’s hardly a bad player.

Expectations versus results are the biggest problem here. The Stars expected superstar Jamie Benn to always be here. Instead they’re getting really good Jamie Benn at a superstar cost. Then they’re blaming the aging player for the team not getting what they expected.

The team set unrealistic expectations and the team has to deal with it. It isn’t Benn’s fault that he is aging or that his personality doesn’t match what the team wants from a captain. By all accounts he’s a great guy who is busting his ass to be the best player he can be. He isn’t a vocal leader, but he never has been.

His play is saying that he’s a good, albeit aging, player. That isn’t what the Stars wanted. The Stars need to re-evaluate the thought process that led them to sign a contract they no longer seem to like less than two years later so that they can avoid “mistakes” like this in the future.

What they shouldn’t do is continue to dump all over Jamie Benn for their own player valuation “mistakes”.

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